These findings emerge from the report “Climate Change: Social & Economic Impacts on African Agriculture”, produced by Internationalia in collaboration with FederUnacoma and presented on 10 November at EIMA International, the agricultural and gardening machinery exhibition in Bologna. During the presentation, moderated by Gianfranco Belgrano, Editor of Africa e Affari, FederUnacoma President Mariateresa Maschio highlighted the continent’s strengths, the challenges ahead and the opportunities for cooperation, while acknowledging the severity of the climate emergency.
As speakers explained, rising temperatures, increasingly irregular rainfall, more frequent extreme weather events and progressive soil degradation often compound existing economic and social vulnerabilities, worsening living conditions. These phenomena particularly affect rural communities, where agriculture remains a major source of employment and income, and access to infrastructure, technology, finance and protection systems is limited.
While individual natural disasters displace populations — according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, disasters caused 7.8 million displacements in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 — climate cannot be considered the sole driver of migration. Decisions to move result from the interaction of multiple economic, environmental, political and social factors. The consequences of climate change compound poverty, inequality, institutional fragility and political instability and, in some contexts, contribute to increased migration and social tensions.
When migration occurs, the study reveals, it tends to take place within individual African countries or at regional level, usually from rural areas to urban centres. International migration has increased significantly in recent years, with around 21 million Africans living outside the continent.
“Climate change operates within an already fragile context,” observed Mattia Giampaolo, researcher and co-author of the study, referring to African communities practising subsistence farming, which are exposed to insufficient rainfall and natural disasters. “Without action, and in combination with other factors such as conflicts and economic crises, migration flows are set to increase, first within Africa itself and then beyond the continent, towards Europe, the Americas and Asia.”
At the same time, Africa has significant productive potential, linked to its agricultural resources, population growth and expanding domestic markets. Fully realising this potential requires structural changes to production systems.
“African agriculture is evolving and has enormous potential,” stressed Jean-Leonard Touadi, Senior Advisor at FAO and lecturer in the Geography of Development in Africa at Sapienza University of Rome, during the report’s presentation. The war between Russia and Ukraine, international tensions and climate change are placing pressure on the sector, speakers explained, but the continent also has resources and a young population on which to build its productive future.
For Touadi, the question is whether African governments will commit resources to agriculture, treating it as an investment rather than a cost. This choice concerns both national budgets and political priorities.
Marirosa Iannelli, ACRA’s climate change and ecological transition expert, explored these issues, reporting on developments at COP31, which has just opened in Antalya, Türkiye. The African Group had requested a dedicated negotiating item on tripling adaptation finance. However, Iannelli explained, countries failed to reach agreement, and the agenda was adopted without this crucial item, although the possibility of addressing it in other sessions remains open.
For African farming communities most exposed to climate impacts, these negotiations concern the practical ability to access water, protect soils and cope with unpredictable growing seasons. The risk, however, is that international decisions may come too late.